Lusitânia 0–2 São João Ver: Result & Stats

Lusitânia

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

São João Ver

11/23/2024

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio João Paulo II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lusitânia20%

×Draw23%

São João Ver57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LusitâniaExpected goals in this matchSão João Ver

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.83

Lusitânia

1.00

São João Ver

1.83

São João Ver creates 83% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

0.83

creates per match

1.67

2.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Lusitânia

0.83

São João Ver

1.67

allows per match

Lusitânia

2.00

São João Ver

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lusitânia+0.00on par

São João Ver+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia ↓

São João Ver →

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lusitânia or draw

43%

Lusitânia or São João Ver

77%

Draw or São João Ver

80%

Winning margin

Lusitânia wins by 2+

São João Ver wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Lusitânia 1+ goals

63%

Lusitânia 2+ goals

26%

Lusitânia 3+ goals

São João Ver 1+ goals

84%

São João Ver 2+ goals

54%

São João Ver 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia (draw refunded)

26%

São João Ver (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

São João Ver away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia attack 0.83 + São João Ver defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

São João Ver attack 1.67 + Lusitânia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lusitânia scores more

20%

level

23%

São João Ver scores more

57%

São João Ver at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "São João Ver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff