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Lusitânia vs Régua — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lusitânia
Lusitânia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Régua
Régua
9/22/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio João Paulo II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lusitânia70%
×Draw15%
Régua14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitânia
3.00
Régua
1.33

Lusitânia creates 126% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lusitânia
0.83
Régua
0.67

allows per match

Lusitânia
2.00
Régua
5.17

finishing

Lusitânia+0.00on par
Régua+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia ↓

Régua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Lusitânia or draw
86%
Lusitânia or Régua
85%
Draw or Régua
30%

Winning margin

Lusitânia wins by 2+
50%
Régua wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lusitânia 1+ goals
95%
Lusitânia 2+ goals
79%
Lusitânia 3+ goals
56%
Régua 1+ goals
74%
Régua 2+ goals
38%
Régua 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia (draw refunded)
83%
Régua (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Régua away — creates 0.67, concedes 5.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia attack 0.83 + Régua defence 5.17 → ÷2 → 3.00

Régua attack 0.67 + Lusitânia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Lusitânia scores more
70%
level
15%
Régua scores more
14%

Lusitânia at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Lusitânia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Lusitânia 2–1 Régua

Lusitânia beat Régua 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio João Paulo II in Ilha Terceira, Açores.