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Lusitânia vs Oliveira Hospital — Liga 3 2021

Lusitânia
Lusitânia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
1/22/2025Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 16Estádio João Paulo II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lusitânia42%
×Draw27%
Oliveira Hospital31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitânia
1.35
Oliveira Hospital
1.11

Lusitânia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 56 away

creates per match

Lusitânia
1.14
Oliveira Hospital
0.93

allows per match

Lusitânia
1.29
Oliveira Hospital
1.57

finishing

Lusitânia+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lusitânia or draw
69%
Lusitânia or Oliveira Hospital
73%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
58%

Winning margin

Lusitânia wins by 2+
20%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lusitânia 1+ goals
74%
Lusitânia 2+ goals
39%
Lusitânia 3+ goals
15%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
67%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
30%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia (draw refunded)
58%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia attack 1.14 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Oliveira Hospital attack 0.93 + Lusitânia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lusitânia scores more
42%
level
27%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
31%

Lusitânia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lusitânia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Lusitânia 0–0 Oliveira Hospital

Lusitânia and Oliveira Hospital drew 0-0 in Liga 3 on January 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio João Paulo II in Ilha Terceira, Açores.