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Lusitânia Lourosa vs Varzim — Liga 3 2021

Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Varzim
Varzim
2/15/2025Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 2Estádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa51%
×Draw26%
Varzim23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
Varzim
0.91

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 65% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 62 away

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.78
Varzim
0.92

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
0.89
Varzim
1.23

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par
Varzim+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

Varzim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw
77%
Lusitânia Lourosa or Varzim
74%
Draw or Varzim
49%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
26%
Varzim wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
78%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
44%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
19%
Varzim 1+ goals
60%
Varzim 2+ goals
23%
Varzim 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
69%
Varzim (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

Varzim away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.78 + Varzim defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Varzim attack 0.92 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
51%
level
26%
Varzim scores more
23%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Lusitânia Lourosa 2–0 Varzim

Lusitânia Lourosa beat Varzim 2-0 in Liga 3 on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio do Lusitânia FC in Lourosa.