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Lusitânia Lourosa vs Régua — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
FT
10 – 0
HT: 6 – 0
Régua
Régua
9/10/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa90%
×Draw7%
Régua3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitânia Lourosa
4.08
Régua
0.74

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 451% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
3.00
Régua
0.67

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
0.80
Régua
5.17

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par
Régua+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

Régua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw
97%
Lusitânia Lourosa or Régua
93%
Draw or Régua
10%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
77%
Régua wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
98%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
90%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
74%
Régua 1+ goals
52%
Régua 2+ goals
17%
Régua 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
97%
Régua (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Régua away — creates 0.67, concedes 5.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 3.00 + Régua defence 5.17 → ÷2 → 4.08

Régua attack 0.67 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
90%
level
7%
Régua scores more
3%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Lusitânia Lourosa 10–0 Régua

Lusitânia Lourosa beat Régua 10-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio do Lusitânia FC in Lourosa.