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Lusitânia Lourosa vs Felgueiras 1932 — Liga 3 2021

Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
3/2/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 4Estádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa44%
×Draw26%
Felgueiras 193230%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.45
Felgueiras 1932
1.14

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.78
Felgueiras 1932
1.39

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
0.89
Felgueiras 1932
1.11

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par
Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw
70%
Lusitânia Lourosa or Felgueiras 1932
74%
Draw or Felgueiras 1932
56%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
21%
Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
77%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
42%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
18%
Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
68%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
32%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
60%
Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.78 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.45

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.39 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
44%
level
26%
Felgueiras 1932 scores more
30%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Felgueiras 1932

Lusitânia Lourosa beat Felgueiras 1932 1-0 in Liga 3 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Lusitânia FC in Lourosa.