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Lusitânia Lourosa vs Famalicao — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Famalicao
Famalicao
Goba 90'
Anderson 70'
10/20/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa51%
×Draw22%
Famalicao27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.93
Famalicao
1.36

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 42% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
3.00
Famalicao
1.92

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
0.80
Famalicao
0.85

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par
Famalicao+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

Famalicao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw
73%
Lusitânia Lourosa or Famalicao
78%
Draw or Famalicao
49%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
29%
Famalicao wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
85%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
57%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
30%
Famalicao 1+ goals
74%
Famalicao 2+ goals
39%
Famalicao 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
65%
Famalicao (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Famalicao away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 3.00 + Famalicao defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.93

Famalicao attack 1.92 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
51%
level
22%
Famalicao scores more
27%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
Anderson
90'
Goba
120'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Famalicao

Lusitânia Lourosa and Famalicao drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 20, 2019.

Goals: Anderson (70'), Goba (90').

The match was played at Estádio do Lusitânia FC in Lourosa.