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Lushnja vs Shkumbini Peqin — 1st Division 2019

Lushnja
Lushnja
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
12/22/20211st Division1st Division · Round 15Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lushnja66%
×Draw19%
Shkumbini Peqin15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lushnja
2.16
Shkumbini Peqin
0.90

Lushnja creates 140% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lushnja
1.39
Shkumbini Peqin
0.73

allows per match

Lushnja
1.07
Shkumbini Peqin
2.93

finishing

Lushnja+0.00on par
Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lushnja ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lushnja or draw
85%
Lushnja or Shkumbini Peqin
81%
Draw or Shkumbini Peqin
34%

Winning margin

Lushnja wins by 2+
42%
Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lushnja 1+ goals
88%
Lushnja 2+ goals
63%
Lushnja 3+ goals
36%
Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
59%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
23%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lushnja (draw refunded)
82%
Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lushnja at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lushnja attack 1.39 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.16

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Lushnja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Lushnja scores more
66%
level
19%
Shkumbini Peqin scores more
15%

Lushnja at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lushnja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Lushnja 4–1 Shkumbini Peqin

Lushnja beat Shkumbini Peqin 4-1 in 1st Division on December 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu in Lushnjë.