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Lushnja vs Shënkolli — 1st Division 2019

Lushnja
Lushnja
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shënkolli
Shënkolli
9/14/20191st Division1st Division · Round 1Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lushnja60%
×Draw21%
Shënkolli19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lushnja
2.09
Shënkolli
1.10

Lushnja creates 90% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lushnja
1.39
Shënkolli
1.14

allows per match

Lushnja
1.07
Shënkolli
2.79

finishing

Lushnja+0.00on par
Shënkolli+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lushnja ↓

Shënkolli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lushnja or draw
81%
Lushnja or Shënkolli
79%
Draw or Shënkolli
40%

Winning margin

Lushnja wins by 2+
37%
Shënkolli wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lushnja 1+ goals
88%
Lushnja 2+ goals
62%
Lushnja 3+ goals
34%
Shënkolli 1+ goals
67%
Shënkolli 2+ goals
30%
Shënkolli 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lushnja (draw refunded)
76%
Shënkolli (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lushnja at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

Shënkolli away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lushnja attack 1.39 + Shënkolli defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.09

Shënkolli attack 1.14 + Lushnja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lushnja scores more
60%
level
21%
Shënkolli scores more
19%

Lushnja at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lushnja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lushnja vs Shënkolli

Lushnja beat Shënkolli 4-1 in 1st Division on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu in Lushnjë.