Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lushnja vs Erzeni Shijak — 1st Division 2019

Lushnja
Lushnja
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
2/23/20251st Division1st Division · Round 24Fusha e Plugut KF Lushnja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Lushnja42%
×Draw27%
Erzeni Shijak31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lushnja
1.34
Erzeni Shijak
1.11

Lushnja creates 21% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 55 away

creates per match

Lushnja
1.39
Erzeni Shijak
1.15

allows per match

Lushnja
1.07
Erzeni Shijak
1.29

finishing

Lushnja+0.00on par
Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lushnja ↓

Erzeni Shijak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lushnja or draw
69%
Lushnja or Erzeni Shijak
73%
Draw or Erzeni Shijak
58%

Winning margin

Lushnja wins by 2+
19%
Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lushnja 1+ goals
74%
Lushnja 2+ goals
39%
Lushnja 3+ goals
15%
Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
67%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
30%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lushnja (draw refunded)
58%
Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lushnja at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lushnja attack 1.39 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.15 + Lushnja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lushnja scores more
42%
level
27%
Erzeni Shijak scores more
31%

Lushnja at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lushnja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lushnja vs Erzeni Shijak

Lushnja beat Erzeni Shijak 3-0 in 1st Division on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Fusha e Plugut KF Lushnja in Plug.