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Lushnja vs Devolli — 1st Division 2019

Lushnja
Lushnja
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Devolli
Devolli
1/25/20201st Division1st Division · Round 13Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lushnja51%
×Draw25%
Devolli24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lushnja
1.59
Devolli
1.00

Lushnja creates 59% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lushnja
1.39
Devolli
0.93

allows per match

Lushnja
1.07
Devolli
1.80

finishing

Lushnja+0.00on par
Devolli+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lushnja ↓

Devolli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lushnja or draw
76%
Lushnja or Devolli
75%
Draw or Devolli
49%

Winning margin

Lushnja wins by 2+
27%
Devolli wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lushnja 1+ goals
80%
Lushnja 2+ goals
47%
Lushnja 3+ goals
21%
Devolli 1+ goals
63%
Devolli 2+ goals
26%
Devolli 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lushnja (draw refunded)
68%
Devolli (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lushnja at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

Devolli away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lushnja attack 1.39 + Devolli defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.59

Devolli attack 0.93 + Lushnja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lushnja scores more
51%
level
25%
Devolli scores more
24%

Lushnja at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lushnja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Lushnja 1–0 Devolli

Lushnja beat Devolli 1-0 in 1st Division on January 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu in Lushnjë.