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Lushnja vs Bylis — 1st Division 2019

Lushnja
Lushnja
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bylis
Bylis
2/3/20241st Division1st Division · Round 19Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lushnja37%
×Draw28%
Bylis35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lushnja
1.21
Bylis
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lushnja
1.39
Bylis
1.29

allows per match

Lushnja
1.07
Bylis
1.03

finishing

Lushnja+0.00on par
Bylis+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lushnja ↓

Bylis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lushnja or draw
65%
Lushnja or Bylis
72%
Draw or Bylis
63%

Winning margin

Lushnja wins by 2+
16%
Bylis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lushnja 1+ goals
70%
Lushnja 2+ goals
34%
Lushnja 3+ goals
12%
Bylis 1+ goals
69%
Bylis 2+ goals
33%
Bylis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lushnja (draw refunded)
51%
Bylis (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lushnja at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

Bylis away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lushnja attack 1.39 + Bylis defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bylis attack 1.29 + Lushnja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lushnja scores more
37%
level
28%
Bylis scores more
35%

Lushnja at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lushnja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lushnja vs Bylis

Bylis beat Lushnja 2-0 in 1st Division on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu in Lushnjë.