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Luparense vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Luparense
Luparense
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
P. F. Russo 90+4'
F. Roberti 28'
M. Bussi 25'
3/12/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 27Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Luparense49%
×Draw26%
Virtus Bolzano24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luparense
1.47
Virtus Bolzano
0.94

Luparense creates 56% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

creates per match

Luparense
1.58
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Luparense
0.99
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luparense or draw
76%
Luparense or Virtus Bolzano
74%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
51%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+
25%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals
77%
Luparense 2+ goals
43%
Luparense 3+ goals
18%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
61%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
24%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)
67%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Luparense scores more
49%
level
26%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
24%

Luparense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
M. Bussi
28'
F. Roberti
90+4'
P. F. Russo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Luparense 3 – 0 Virtus Bolzano

Luparense beat Virtus Bolzano 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 12, 2023.

Goals: M. Bussi (25'), F. Roberti (28'), P. F. Russo (90+4').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée in San Martino di Lupari.