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Luparense vs Villafranca — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Luparense
Luparense
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Villafranca
Villafranca
10/30/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 9Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Luparense51%
×Draw25%
Villafranca24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luparense
1.60
Villafranca
1.03

Luparense creates 55% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 30 away

creates per match

Luparense
1.58
Villafranca
1.07

allows per match

Luparense
0.99
Villafranca
1.63

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par
Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

Villafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Luparense or draw
76%
Luparense or Villafranca
75%
Draw or Villafranca
49%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+
26%
Villafranca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals
80%
Luparense 2+ goals
47%
Luparense 3+ goals
22%
Villafranca 1+ goals
64%
Villafranca 2+ goals
28%
Villafranca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)
67%
Villafranca (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + Villafranca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Villafranca attack 1.07 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Luparense scores more
51%
level
25%
Villafranca scores more
24%

Luparense at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luparense vs Villafranca

Luparense beat Villafranca 4-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée in San Martino di Lupari.