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Luparense vs Union Feltre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Luparense
Luparense
FT
2 – 3
Union Feltre
Union Feltre
12/15/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 18Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée (San Martino di Lupari)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Luparense37%
×Draw25%
Union Feltre39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luparense
1.45
Union Feltre
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 13 away

creates per match

Luparense
1.58
Union Feltre
2.00

allows per match

Luparense
0.99
Union Feltre
1.31

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par
Union Feltre+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

Union Feltre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Luparense or draw
61%
Luparense or Union Feltre
75%
Draw or Union Feltre
63%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+
17%
Union Feltre wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals
77%
Luparense 2+ goals
42%
Luparense 3+ goals
18%
Union Feltre 1+ goals
78%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
44%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)
49%
Union Feltre (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Union Feltre away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + Union Feltre defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Union Feltre attack 2.00 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Luparense scores more
37%
level
25%
Union Feltre scores more
39%

Union Feltre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luparense vs Union Feltre

Union Feltre beat Luparense 3-2 in Serie D - Girone C on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée (San Martino di Lupari).