Luparense 1–3 Montecchio Maggiore: Result & Stats

Luparense

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Montecchio Maggiore

F. Modesti 2'

B. Medina 80'

F. Segalina 65'

N. Visinoni 14' (pen)

11/11/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 11Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Luparense46%

×Draw25%

Montecchio Maggiore29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuparenseExpected goals in this matchMontecchio Maggiore

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.16

Luparense

1.52

Montecchio Maggiore

1.16

Luparense creates 31% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 53 away

1.58

creates per match

1.32

0.99

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Luparense

1.58

Montecchio Maggiore

1.32

allows per match

Luparense

0.99

Montecchio Maggiore

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Luparense or draw

71%

Luparense or Montecchio Maggiore

75%

Draw or Montecchio Maggiore

54%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+

23%

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals

78%

Luparense 2+ goals

45%

Luparense 3+ goals

20%

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals

69%

Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals

32%

Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)

61%

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Luparense scores more

46%

level

25%

Montecchio Maggiore scores more

29%

Luparense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

F. Modesti

14'

N. VisinoniPenalty

65'

F. Segalina

80'

B. Medina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff