Luparense 1–1 Dolomiti Bellunesi: Result & Stats

Luparense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dolomiti Bellunesi

10/28/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 8Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Luparense41%

×Draw26%

Dolomiti Bellunesi33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuparenseExpected goals in this matchDolomiti Bellunesi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.23

Luparense

1.41

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.23

Luparense creates 15% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 70 away

1.58

creates per match

1.47

0.99

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Luparense

1.58

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.47

allows per match

Luparense

0.99

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Luparense or draw

67%

Luparense or Dolomiti Bellunesi

74%

Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi

59%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+

19%

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals

76%

Luparense 2+ goals

41%

Luparense 3+ goals

17%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals

71%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals

35%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)

56%

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Luparense scores more

41%

level

26%

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more

33%

Luparense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff