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Luparense vs Chions — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Luparense
Luparense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chions
Chions
O. Adrian 10'
Lane 90'
9/14/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 2Stadio Tombolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Luparense53%
×Draw24%
Chions23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luparense
1.71
Chions
1.04

Luparense creates 64% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 50 away

creates per match

Luparense
1.58
Chions
1.10

allows per match

Luparense
0.99
Chions
1.84

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par
Chions+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

Chions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Luparense or draw
77%
Luparense or Chions
76%
Draw or Chions
47%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+
29%
Chions wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals
82%
Luparense 2+ goals
51%
Luparense 3+ goals
24%
Chions 1+ goals
65%
Chions 2+ goals
28%
Chions 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)
70%
Chions (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Chions away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + Chions defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.71

Chions attack 1.10 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Luparense scores more
53%
level
24%
Chions scores more
23%

Luparense at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
O. Adrian
90'
Lane

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luparense vs Chions

Luparense and Chions drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 14, 2024.

Goals: O. Adrian (10'), Lane (90').

The match was played at Stadio Tombolo in Tombolo.