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Luparense vs Cattolica — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Luparense
Luparense
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cattolica
Cattolica
G. Laurenti 46'
J. Cardellino 43'
M. Frison 23'
4/3/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 27Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Luparense60%
×Draw23%
Cattolica16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luparense
1.73
Cattolica
0.76

Luparense creates 128% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Luparense
1.58
Cattolica
0.53

allows per match

Luparense
0.99
Cattolica
1.88

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par
Cattolica+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

Cattolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luparense or draw
84%
Luparense or Cattolica
77%
Draw or Cattolica
40%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+
34%
Cattolica wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals
82%
Luparense 2+ goals
52%
Luparense 3+ goals
25%
Cattolica 1+ goals
53%
Cattolica 2+ goals
18%
Cattolica 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)
79%
Cattolica (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Cattolica away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + Cattolica defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cattolica attack 0.53 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Luparense scores more
60%
level
23%
Cattolica scores more
16%

Luparense at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
M. Frison
43'
J. Cardellino
46'
G. Laurenti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Luparense 3–0 Cattolica

Luparense beat Cattolica 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on April 3, 2022.

Goals: M. Frison (23'), J. Cardellino (43'), G. Laurenti (46').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée in San Martino di Lupari.