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Lupa Roma vs Portici — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Lupa Roma
Lupa Roma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portici
Portici
10/23/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 8Stadio Montefiore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lupa Roma57%
×Draw25%
Portici18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lupa Roma
1.59
Portici
0.78

Lupa Roma creates 104% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 30 away

creates per match

Lupa Roma
1.76
Portici
0.80

allows per match

Lupa Roma
0.76
Portici
1.43

finishing

Lupa Roma+0.00on par
Portici+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lupa Roma ↓

Portici →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lupa Roma or draw
82%
Lupa Roma or Portici
75%
Draw or Portici
43%

Winning margin

Lupa Roma wins by 2+
30%
Portici wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lupa Roma 1+ goals
80%
Lupa Roma 2+ goals
47%
Lupa Roma 3+ goals
21%
Portici 1+ goals
54%
Portici 2+ goals
18%
Portici 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lupa Roma (draw refunded)
76%
Portici (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lupa Roma at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Portici away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lupa Roma attack 1.76 + Portici defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Portici attack 0.80 + Lupa Roma defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lupa Roma scores more
57%
level
25%
Portici scores more
18%

Lupa Roma at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lupa Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Lupa Roma 1–0 Portici

Lupa Roma beat Portici 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Montefiore in Rocca Priora.