Lupa Roma 3–0 Nola 1925: Result & Stats

Lupa Roma

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nola 1925

11/20/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 12Stadio Comunale 8 Settembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lupa Roma53%

×Draw23%

Nola 192523%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lupa RomaExpected goals in this matchNola 1925

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.10

Lupa Roma

1.79

Nola 1925

1.10

Lupa Roma creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.76

creates per match

1.44

0.76

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Lupa Roma

1.76

Nola 1925

1.44

allows per match

Lupa Roma

0.76

Nola 1925

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lupa Roma+0.00on par

Nola 1925+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lupa Roma ↓

Nola 1925 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lupa Roma or draw

77%

Lupa Roma or Nola 1925

77%

Draw or Nola 1925

47%

Winning margin

Lupa Roma wins by 2+

30%

Nola 1925 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lupa Roma 1+ goals

83%

Lupa Roma 2+ goals

53%

Lupa Roma 3+ goals

26%

Nola 1925 1+ goals

67%

Nola 1925 2+ goals

30%

Nola 1925 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lupa Roma (draw refunded)

70%

Nola 1925 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lupa Roma at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Nola 1925 away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lupa Roma attack 1.76 + Nola 1925 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Nola 1925 attack 1.44 + Lupa Roma defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lupa Roma scores more

53%

level

23%

Nola 1925 scores more

23%

Lupa Roma at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lupa Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff