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Lupa Roma vs Casertana — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Lupa Roma
Lupa Roma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Casertana
Casertana
2/18/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 24Stadio Comunale 8 Settembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lupa Roma48%
×Draw25%
Casertana26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lupa Roma
1.56
Casertana
1.08

Lupa Roma creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lupa Roma
1.76
Casertana
1.41

allows per match

Lupa Roma
0.76
Casertana
1.35

finishing

Lupa Roma+0.00on par
Casertana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lupa Roma ↓

Casertana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lupa Roma or draw
74%
Lupa Roma or Casertana
75%
Draw or Casertana
52%

Winning margin

Lupa Roma wins by 2+
25%
Casertana wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lupa Roma 1+ goals
79%
Lupa Roma 2+ goals
46%
Lupa Roma 3+ goals
21%
Casertana 1+ goals
66%
Casertana 2+ goals
29%
Casertana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lupa Roma (draw refunded)
65%
Casertana (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lupa Roma at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Casertana away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lupa Roma attack 1.76 + Casertana defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.56

Casertana attack 1.41 + Lupa Roma defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lupa Roma scores more
48%
level
25%
Casertana scores more
26%

Lupa Roma at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lupa Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Lupa Roma 0–1 Casertana

Casertana beat Lupa Roma 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale 8 Settembre in Frascati.