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Lupa Roma vs Atletico Uri — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Lupa Roma
Lupa Roma
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
10/9/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 6Stadio Montefiore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lupa Roma59%
×Draw24%
Atletico Uri17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lupa Roma
1.73
Atletico Uri
0.81

Lupa Roma creates 114% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Lupa Roma
1.76
Atletico Uri
0.87

allows per match

Lupa Roma
0.76
Atletico Uri
1.71

finishing

Lupa Roma+0.00on par
Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lupa Roma ↓

Atletico Uri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lupa Roma or draw
83%
Lupa Roma or Atletico Uri
76%
Draw or Atletico Uri
41%

Winning margin

Lupa Roma wins by 2+
33%
Atletico Uri wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lupa Roma 1+ goals
82%
Lupa Roma 2+ goals
52%
Lupa Roma 3+ goals
25%
Atletico Uri 1+ goals
56%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
19%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lupa Roma (draw refunded)
77%
Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lupa Roma at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lupa Roma attack 1.76 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Lupa Roma defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lupa Roma scores more
59%
level
24%
Atletico Uri scores more
17%

Lupa Roma at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lupa Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Lupa Roma 3–0 Atletico Uri

Lupa Roma beat Atletico Uri 3-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Montefiore in Rocca Priora.