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Lupa Roma vs Aprilia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Lupa Roma
Lupa Roma
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aprilia
Aprilia
11/6/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 10Stadio Comunale 8 Settembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lupa Roma51%
×Draw26%
Aprilia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lupa Roma
1.53
Aprilia
0.93

Lupa Roma creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Lupa Roma
1.76
Aprilia
1.09

allows per match

Lupa Roma
0.76
Aprilia
1.30

finishing

Lupa Roma+0.00on par
Aprilia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lupa Roma ↓

Aprilia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lupa Roma or draw
77%
Lupa Roma or Aprilia
74%
Draw or Aprilia
49%

Winning margin

Lupa Roma wins by 2+
26%
Aprilia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lupa Roma 1+ goals
78%
Lupa Roma 2+ goals
45%
Lupa Roma 3+ goals
20%
Aprilia 1+ goals
61%
Aprilia 2+ goals
24%
Aprilia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lupa Roma (draw refunded)
69%
Aprilia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lupa Roma at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Aprilia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lupa Roma attack 1.76 + Aprilia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.53

Aprilia attack 1.09 + Lupa Roma defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lupa Roma scores more
51%
level
26%
Aprilia scores more
23%

Lupa Roma at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lupa Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Lupa Roma 3–1 Aprilia

Lupa Roma beat Aprilia 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale 8 Settembre in Frascati.