Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lund vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Svenska Cupen 2019

Lund
Lund
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
8/14/2019Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundKlostergårdens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lund18%
×Draw23%
Varbergs BoIS FC59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lund
0.84
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.75

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 108% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lund
0.50
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.76

allows per match

Lund
1.75
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.18

finishing

Lund+0.00on par
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lund ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lund or draw
41%
Lund or Varbergs BoIS FC
77%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
82%

Winning margin

Lund wins by 2+
6%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Lund 1+ goals
57%
Lund 2+ goals
21%
Lund 3+ goals
5%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
83%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
52%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Lund (draw refunded)
23%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lund at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lund attack 0.50 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.84

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.76 + Lund defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lund scores more
18%
level
23%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
59%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lund vs Varbergs BoIS FC

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Lund 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on August 14, 2019.

The match was played at Klostergårdens IP in Lund.