Lund vs Skövde AIK — Ettan - Södra 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 66+ matches
Lund52%
Skövde AIK25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Lund creates 53% more chances
Season form · 109 home / 66 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Lund ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Lund at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 109 matches
Skövde AIK away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Lund attack 1.75 + Skövde AIK defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79
Skövde AIK attack 1.20 + Lund defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Lund at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Lund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Skövde AIK substitutes
IFK Varnamo
Landskrona BoIS
Utsikten
Lindome
Assyriska TurabdinSkövde AIK
Trollhättan
Torns
Linköping City
Oskarshamns AIK
Tvååker
Qviding FIFLund
Eskilsminne
Motala
KarlskronaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Lund host Skövde AIK on Saturday, 2 October 2021 at 12:00. The match is part of the Ettan - Södra 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Lund vs Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK beat Lund 5-1 in Ettan - Södra on October 2, 2021.
Goals: O. Lennerskog (24'), D. Ask (29'), N. Hansson (31'), Villiam Granath (47'), E. Abraham (87'), Viktor Granath (90+2').
The match was played at Klostergårdens IP in Lund.