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Lund vs Kalmar FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Lund
Lund
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
8/18/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundKlostergårdens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lund17%
×Draw22%
Kalmar FF61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lund
0.85
Kalmar FF
1.84

Kalmar FF creates 116% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lund
0.50
Kalmar FF
1.93

allows per match

Lund
1.75
Kalmar FF
1.20

finishing

Lund+0.00on par
Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lund ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lund or draw
39%
Lund or Kalmar FF
78%
Draw or Kalmar FF
83%

Winning margin

Lund wins by 2+
5%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Lund 1+ goals
57%
Lund 2+ goals
21%
Lund 3+ goals
5%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
84%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
55%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Lund (draw refunded)
22%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lund at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lund attack 0.50 + Kalmar FF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.85

Kalmar FF attack 1.93 + Lund defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lund scores more
17%
level
22%
Kalmar FF scores more
61%

Kalmar FF at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lund 1 – 1 Kalmar FF

Lund and Kalmar FF drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Klostergårdens IP in Lund.