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Lund vs IF Elfsborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Lund
Lund
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
8/23/2023Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundKlostergårdens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lund10%
×Draw19%
IF Elfsborg71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lund
0.60
IF Elfsborg
2.05

IF Elfsborg creates 242% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lund
0.50
IF Elfsborg
2.36

allows per match

Lund
1.75
IF Elfsborg
0.71

finishing

Lund+0.00on par
IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lund ↓

IF Elfsborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–115%
0–215%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lund or draw
29%
Lund or IF Elfsborg
81%
Draw or IF Elfsborg
90%

Winning margin

Lund wins by 2+
2%
IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Lund 1+ goals
45%
Lund 2+ goals
12%
Lund 3+ goals
2%
IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
87%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
61%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Lund (draw refunded)
12%
IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lund at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lund attack 0.50 + IF Elfsborg defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.60

IF Elfsborg attack 2.36 + Lund defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Lund scores more
10%
level
19%
IF Elfsborg scores more
71%

IF Elfsborg at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Lund 0–2 IF Elfsborg

IF Elfsborg beat Lund 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Klostergårdens IP in Lund.