Lun Lok 1–2 Sporting Macau: Result & Stats

Lun Lok

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting Macau

7/12/2025

Primeira Divisão · Relegation Round - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lun Lok43%

×Draw18%

Sporting Macau39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lun LokExpected goals in this matchSporting Macau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

2.80

Lun Lok

2.96

Sporting Macau

2.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

1.00

creates per match

0.86

4.73

allows per match

4.93

creates per match

Lun Lok

1.00

Sporting Macau

0.86

allows per match

Lun Lok

4.73

Sporting Macau

4.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lun Lok+0.00on par

Sporting Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes89
No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lun Lok ↓

Sporting Macau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–34%

1–43%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–44%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

82%18%4.5

66%34%

Double chance

Lun Lok or draw

61%

Lun Lok or Sporting Macau

82%

Draw or Sporting Macau

57%

Winning margin

Lun Lok wins by 2+

27%

Sporting Macau wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Lun Lok 1+ goals

95%

Lun Lok 2+ goals

79%

Lun Lok 3+ goals

55%

Sporting Macau 1+ goals

94%

Sporting Macau 2+ goals

76%

Sporting Macau 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Lun Lok (draw refunded)

53%

Sporting Macau (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

86%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lun Lok at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.73 · 22 matches

Sporting Macau away — creates 0.86, concedes 4.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lun Lok attack 1.00 + Sporting Macau defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 2.96

Sporting Macau attack 0.86 + Lun Lok defence 4.73 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lun Lok scores more

43%

level

18%

Sporting Macau scores more

39%

Lun Lok at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lun Lok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff