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Lun Lok vs CPK — Primeira Divisão 2026

Lun Lok
Lun Lok
FT
1 – 10
HT: 0 – 3
CPK
CPK
3/8/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 2Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lun Lok3%
×Draw5%
CPK92%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lun Lok
0.88
CPK
4.85

CPK creates 451% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

creates per match

Lun Lok
1.00
CPK
4.97

allows per match

Lun Lok
4.73
CPK
0.76

finishing

Lun Lok+0.00on par
CPK+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lun Lok ↓

CPK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–25%
0–38%
0–410%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (10%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

Lun Lok or draw
8%
Lun Lok or CPK
95%
Draw or CPK
97%

Winning margin

Lun Lok wins by 2+
1%
CPK wins by 2+
81%

Team goals

Lun Lok 1+ goals
59%
Lun Lok 2+ goals
22%
Lun Lok 3+ goals
6%
CPK 1+ goals
99%
CPK 2+ goals
94%
CPK 3+ goals
82%

Draw no bet

Lun Lok (draw refunded)
3%
CPK (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lun Lok at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.73 · 22 matches

CPK away — creates 4.97, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lun Lok attack 1.00 + CPK defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

CPK attack 4.97 + Lun Lok defence 4.73 → ÷2 → 4.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Lun Lok scores more
3%
level
5%
CPK scores more
92%

CPK at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lun Lok vs CPK

CPK beat Lun Lok 10-1 in Primeira Divisão on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.