Luki-Energiya 1–1 Torpedo Moskva II: Result & Stats

Luki-Energiya

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Torpedo Moskva II

10/22/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Stadion Ekspress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Luki-Energiya40%

×Draw27%

Torpedo Moskva II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luki-EnergiyaExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.17

Luki-Energiya

1.30

Torpedo Moskva II

1.17

Luki-Energiya creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 24 away

1.27

creates per match

1.13

1.22

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Luki-Energiya

1.27

Torpedo Moskva II

1.13

allows per match

Luki-Energiya

1.22

Torpedo Moskva II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luki-Energiya+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luki-Energiya ↓

Torpedo Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Luki-Energiya or draw

67%

Luki-Energiya or Torpedo Moskva II

73%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva II

60%

Winning margin

Luki-Energiya wins by 2+

18%

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Luki-Energiya 1+ goals

73%

Luki-Energiya 2+ goals

37%

Luki-Energiya 3+ goals

14%

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals

69%

Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals

33%

Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luki-Energiya (draw refunded)

54%

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luki-Energiya at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Torpedo Moskva II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luki-Energiya attack 1.27 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.13 + Luki-Energiya defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Luki-Energiya scores more

40%

level

27%

Torpedo Moskva II scores more

33%

Luki-Energiya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Luki-Energiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff