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Luki-Energiya vs Kairat Moskva — Second League - Group 2 2020

Luki-Energiya
Luki-Energiya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
10/4/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Stadion Ekspress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Luki-Energiya39%
×Draw28%
Kairat Moskva33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luki-Energiya
1.23
Kairat Moskva
1.11

Luki-Energiya creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

creates per match

Luki-Energiya
1.27
Kairat Moskva
1.00

allows per match

Luki-Energiya
1.22
Kairat Moskva
1.20

finishing

Luki-Energiya+0.00on par
Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luki-Energiya ↓

Kairat Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luki-Energiya or draw
67%
Luki-Energiya or Kairat Moskva
72%
Draw or Kairat Moskva
61%

Winning margin

Luki-Energiya wins by 2+
17%
Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Luki-Energiya 1+ goals
71%
Luki-Energiya 2+ goals
35%
Luki-Energiya 3+ goals
13%
Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
67%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
30%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Luki-Energiya (draw refunded)
54%
Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luki-Energiya at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Kairat Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luki-Energiya attack 1.27 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kairat Moskva attack 1.00 + Luki-Energiya defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Luki-Energiya scores more
39%
level
28%
Kairat Moskva scores more
33%

Luki-Energiya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luki-Energiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luki-Energiya vs Kairat Moskva

Luki-Energiya and Kairat Moskva drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Ekspress in Velikiye Luki.