Luki-Energiya 1–0 Elektron VN: Result & Stats

Luki-Energiya

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Elektron VN

11/6/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion Ekspress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Luki-Energiya67%

×Draw19%

Elektron VN13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luki-EnergiyaExpected goals in this matchElektron VN

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.84

Luki-Energiya

2.16

Elektron VN

0.84

Luki-Energiya creates 157% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 24 away

1.27

creates per match

0.46

1.22

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

Luki-Energiya

1.27

Elektron VN

0.46

allows per match

Luki-Energiya

1.22

Elektron VN

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luki-Energiya+0.00on par

Elektron VN+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luki-Energiya ↓

Elektron VN →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Luki-Energiya or draw

87%

Luki-Energiya or Elektron VN

81%

Draw or Elektron VN

33%

Winning margin

Luki-Energiya wins by 2+

43%

Elektron VN wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Luki-Energiya 1+ goals

88%

Luki-Energiya 2+ goals

63%

Luki-Energiya 3+ goals

36%

Elektron VN 1+ goals

57%

Elektron VN 2+ goals

21%

Elektron VN 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Luki-Energiya (draw refunded)

83%

Elektron VN (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luki-Energiya at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Elektron VN away — creates 0.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luki-Energiya attack 1.27 + Elektron VN defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.16

Elektron VN attack 0.46 + Luki-Energiya defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Luki-Energiya scores more

67%

level

19%

Elektron VN scores more

13%

Luki-Energiya at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Luki-Energiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff