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Luki-Energiya vs Dolgoprudny — Cup 2019

Luki-Energiya
Luki-Energiya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dolgoprudny
Dolgoprudny
8/19/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundStadion Ekspress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Luki-Energiya49%
×Draw22%
Dolgoprudny29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luki-Energiya
1.94
Dolgoprudny
1.44

Luki-Energiya creates 35% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Luki-Energiya
1.88
Dolgoprudny
1.75

allows per match

Luki-Energiya
1.13
Dolgoprudny
2.00

finishing

Luki-Energiya+0.00on par
Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luki-Energiya ↓

Dolgoprudny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Luki-Energiya or draw
71%
Luki-Energiya or Dolgoprudny
78%
Draw or Dolgoprudny
51%

Winning margin

Luki-Energiya wins by 2+
28%
Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Luki-Energiya 1+ goals
86%
Luki-Energiya 2+ goals
58%
Luki-Energiya 3+ goals
30%
Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
76%
Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
42%
Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Luki-Energiya (draw refunded)
63%
Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luki-Energiya at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Dolgoprudny away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luki-Energiya attack 1.88 + Dolgoprudny defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Dolgoprudny attack 1.75 + Luki-Energiya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Luki-Energiya scores more
49%
level
22%
Dolgoprudny scores more
29%

Luki-Energiya at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Luki-Energiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Luki-Energiya 1–1 Dolgoprudny

Luki-Energiya and Dolgoprudny drew 1-1 in Cup on August 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Ekspress in Velikiye Luki.