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Luki-Energiya vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Luki-Energiya
Luki-Energiya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
8/25/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Stadion Ekspress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Luki-Energiya39%
×Draw27%
Baltika BFU34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luki-Energiya
1.34
Baltika BFU
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 53 away

creates per match

Luki-Energiya
1.27
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Luki-Energiya
1.22
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Luki-Energiya+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luki-Energiya ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Luki-Energiya or draw
66%
Luki-Energiya or Baltika BFU
73%
Draw or Baltika BFU
61%

Winning margin

Luki-Energiya wins by 2+
18%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Luki-Energiya 1+ goals
74%
Luki-Energiya 2+ goals
39%
Luki-Energiya 3+ goals
15%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
71%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
35%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Luki-Energiya (draw refunded)
54%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luki-Energiya at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luki-Energiya attack 1.27 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Luki-Energiya defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Luki-Energiya scores more
39%
level
27%
Baltika BFU scores more
34%

Luki-Energiya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luki-Energiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luki-Energiya vs Baltika BFU

Luki-Energiya and Baltika BFU drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ekspress in Velikiye Luki.