Lujan 1–1 Sportivo Barracas: Result & Stats

Lujan

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sportivo Barracas

10/18/2025

Primera C · Quarter-finals1 de abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Lujan43%

×Draw31%

Sportivo Barracas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LujanExpected goals in this matchSportivo Barracas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.82

Lujan

1.15

Sportivo Barracas

0.82

Lujan creates 40% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 68 away

1.08

creates per match

0.78

0.87

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Lujan

1.08

Sportivo Barracas

0.78

allows per match

Lujan

0.87

Sportivo Barracas

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lujan+0.00on par

Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lujan ↓

Sportivo Barracas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Lujan or draw

74%

Lujan or Sportivo Barracas

69%

Draw or Sportivo Barracas

57%

Winning margin

Lujan wins by 2+

18%

Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lujan 1+ goals

68%

Lujan 2+ goals

32%

Lujan 3+ goals

11%

Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals

56%

Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals

20%

Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lujan (draw refunded)

62%

Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lujan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.87 · 138 matches

Sportivo Barracas away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lujan attack 1.08 + Sportivo Barracas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sportivo Barracas attack 0.78 + Lujan defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lujan scores more

43%

level

31%

Sportivo Barracas scores more

26%

Lujan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lujan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff