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Lujan vs Dock Sud — Primera C 2026

Lujan
Lujan
FT
1 – 2
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
G. Perez 90'
F. Motta 12'
L. Caruso 10' (pen)
9/14/2021Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 9Campo Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Lujan35%
×Draw30%
Dock Sud35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lujan
1.03
Dock Sud
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 142 home / 60 away

creates per match

Lujan
1.06
Dock Sud
1.22

allows per match

Lujan
0.86
Dock Sud
1.00

finishing

Lujan+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lujan ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lujan or draw
65%
Lujan or Dock Sud
70%
Draw or Dock Sud
65%

Winning margin

Lujan wins by 2+
13%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lujan 1+ goals
64%
Lujan 2+ goals
28%
Lujan 3+ goals
9%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
65%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
28%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lujan (draw refunded)
50%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lujan at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.86 · 142 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lujan attack 1.06 + Dock Sud defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Dock Sud attack 1.22 + Lujan defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Lujan scores more
35%
level
30%
Dock Sud scores more
35%

Lujan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Lujan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
L. CarusoPenalty
12'
F. Motta
90'
G. Perez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Lujan 1–2 Dock Sud

Dock Sud beat Lujan 2-1 in Primera C on September 14, 2021.

Goals: L. Caruso (10' pen), F. Motta (12'), G. Perez (90').

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Deportes in Luján, Provincia de Buenos Aires.