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Lujan vs Deportivo Paraguayo — Primera C 2026

Lujan
Lujan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Paraguayo
Deportivo Paraguayo
2/3/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 1Campo Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Lujan47%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Paraguayo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lujan
1.25
Deportivo Paraguayo
0.78

Lujan creates 60% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 50 away

creates per match

Lujan
1.08
Deportivo Paraguayo
0.68

allows per match

Lujan
0.87
Deportivo Paraguayo
1.42

finishing

Lujan+0.00on par
Deportivo Paraguayo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lujan ↓

Deportivo Paraguayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lujan or draw
77%
Lujan or Deportivo Paraguayo
71%
Draw or Deportivo Paraguayo
53%

Winning margin

Lujan wins by 2+
22%
Deportivo Paraguayo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lujan 1+ goals
71%
Lujan 2+ goals
36%
Lujan 3+ goals
13%
Deportivo Paraguayo 1+ goals
54%
Deportivo Paraguayo 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Paraguayo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lujan (draw refunded)
67%
Deportivo Paraguayo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lujan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.87 · 138 matches

Deportivo Paraguayo away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.42 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lujan attack 1.08 + Deportivo Paraguayo defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportivo Paraguayo attack 0.68 + Lujan defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lujan scores more
47%
level
29%
Deportivo Paraguayo scores more
23%

Lujan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lujan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Lujan 2–1 Deportivo Paraguayo

Lujan beat Deportivo Paraguayo 2-1 in Primera C on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Deportes in Luján, Provincia de Buenos Aires.