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Lugo vs Sestao River — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Lugo
Lugo
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Sestao River
Sestao River
3/24/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Estadio Anxo Carro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Lugo41%
×Draw28%
Sestao River31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugo
1.27
Sestao River
1.08

Lugo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Lugo
1.09
Sestao River
1.05

allows per match

Lugo
1.12
Sestao River
1.45

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par
Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Sestao River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lugo or draw
69%
Lugo or Sestao River
72%
Draw or Sestao River
59%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+
18%
Sestao River wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals
72%
Lugo 2+ goals
36%
Lugo 3+ goals
14%
Sestao River 1+ goals
66%
Sestao River 2+ goals
29%
Sestao River 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)
56%
Sestao River (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 57 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.09 + Sestao River defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sestao River attack 1.05 + Lugo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lugo scores more
41%
level
28%
Sestao River scores more
31%

Lugo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lugo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Lugo 4–3 Sestao River

Lugo beat Sestao River 4-3 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Anxo Carro in Lugo.