Lugo 2–1 SD Logroñés: Result & Stats

Lugo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

SD Logroñés

10/15/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Anxo Carro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Lugo44%

×Draw28%

SD Logroñés28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LugoExpected goals in this matchSD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.96

Lugo

1.28

SD Logroñés

0.96

Lugo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.09

creates per match

0.79

1.12

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Lugo

1.09

SD Logroñés

0.79

allows per match

Lugo

1.12

SD Logroñés

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par

SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

SD Logroñés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lugo or draw

72%

Lugo or SD Logroñés

72%

Draw or SD Logroñés

56%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+

20%

SD Logroñés wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals

72%

Lugo 2+ goals

37%

Lugo 3+ goals

14%

SD Logroñés 1+ goals

62%

SD Logroñés 2+ goals

25%

SD Logroñés 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)

61%

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 57 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.09 + SD Logroñés defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

SD Logroñés attack 0.79 + Lugo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lugo scores more

44%

level

28%

SD Logroñés scores more

28%

Lugo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lugo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff