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Lugo vs Reus — Segunda División 2018

Lugo
Lugo
FT
1 – 0
Reus
Reus
3/9/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 29Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Lugo43%
×Draw32%
Reus25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugo
1.08
Reus
0.74

Lugo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 21 away

creates per match

Lugo
1.05
Reus
0.38

allows per match

Lugo
1.09
Reus
1.10

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Lugo or draw
75%
Lugo or Reus
68%
Draw or Reus
57%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+
18%
Reus wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals
66%
Lugo 2+ goals
29%
Lugo 3+ goals
10%
Reus 1+ goals
52%
Reus 2+ goals
17%
Reus 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)
64%
Reus (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Reus away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.05 + Reus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Reus attack 0.38 + Lugo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lugo scores more
43%
level
32%
Reus scores more
25%

Lugo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lugo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lugo 1 – 0 Reus

Lugo beat Reus 1-0 in Segunda División on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo).