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Lugo vs Rayo Majadahonda — Segunda División 2018

Lugo
Lugo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
1/26/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 23Anxo Carro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Lugo45%
×Draw26%
Rayo Majadahonda29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugo
1.43
Rayo Majadahonda
1.10

Lugo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 21 away

creates per match

Lugo
1.05
Rayo Majadahonda
1.10

allows per match

Lugo
1.09
Rayo Majadahonda
1.81

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lugo or draw
71%
Lugo or Rayo Majadahonda
74%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
55%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+
22%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals
76%
Lugo 2+ goals
42%
Lugo 3+ goals
17%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
67%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
30%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)
61%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.05 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.10 + Lugo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lugo scores more
45%
level
26%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
29%

Lugo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lugo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Lugo 3–2 Rayo Majadahonda

Lugo beat Rayo Majadahonda 3-2 in Segunda División on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Anxo Carro in Lugo.