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Lugo vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Lugo
Lugo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mirandes
Mirandes
5/15/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 39Estadio Anxo Carro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Lugo42%
×Draw28%
Mirandes30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugo
1.27
Mirandes
1.04

Lugo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 148 away

creates per match

Lugo
1.05
Mirandes
1.00

allows per match

Lugo
1.09
Mirandes
1.48

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par
Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lugo or draw
70%
Lugo or Mirandes
72%
Draw or Mirandes
58%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+
19%
Mirandes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals
72%
Lugo 2+ goals
36%
Lugo 3+ goals
14%
Mirandes 1+ goals
65%
Mirandes 2+ goals
28%
Mirandes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)
58%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.05 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Lugo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lugo scores more
42%
level
28%
Mirandes scores more
30%

Lugo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lugo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lugo vs Mirandes

Lugo beat Mirandes 2-1 in Segunda División on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Anxo Carro in Lugo.