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Lugo vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

Lugo
Lugo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mallorca
Mallorca
9/29/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 7Anxo Carro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Lugo34%
×Draw31%
Mallorca35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugo
0.98
Mallorca
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 45 away

creates per match

Lugo
1.04
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Lugo
1.06
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Lugo or draw
65%
Lugo or Mallorca
69%
Draw or Mallorca
66%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+
13%
Mallorca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals
62%
Lugo 2+ goals
26%
Lugo 3+ goals
8%
Mallorca 1+ goals
63%
Mallorca 2+ goals
26%
Mallorca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)
49%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.04 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Lugo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Lugo scores more
34%
level
31%
Mallorca scores more
35%

Mallorca at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lugo 1 – 1 Mallorca

Lugo and Mallorca drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Anxo Carro in Lugo.