Lugo 1–1 Extremadura: Result & Stats

Lugo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Extremadura

1/13/2019

Segunda División · Round 21Anxo Carro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Lugo38%

×Draw29%

Extremadura33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LugoExpected goals in this matchExtremadura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.08

Lugo

1.18

Extremadura

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 42 away

1.05

creates per match

1.07

1.09

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Lugo

1.05

Extremadura

1.07

allows per match

Lugo

1.09

Extremadura

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par

Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Extremadura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lugo or draw

67%

Lugo or Extremadura

71%

Draw or Extremadura

62%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+

16%

Extremadura wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals

69%

Lugo 2+ goals

33%

Lugo 3+ goals

12%

Extremadura 1+ goals

66%

Extremadura 2+ goals

29%

Extremadura 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)

53%

Extremadura (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.05 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Lugo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lugo scores more

38%

level

29%

Extremadura scores more

33%

Lugo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lugo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff