Lugo 1–0 Celta de Vigo II: Result & Stats

Lugo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Celta de Vigo II

10/19/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Estadio Anxo Carro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lugo35%

×Draw28%

Celta de Vigo II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LugoExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.23

Lugo

1.19

Celta de Vigo II

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 120 away

1.09

creates per match

1.33

1.12

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Lugo

1.09

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Lugo

1.12

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lugo or draw

63%

Lugo or Celta de Vigo II

72%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

65%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+

15%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals

70%

Lugo 2+ goals

33%

Lugo 3+ goals

12%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

71%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

35%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)

49%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 57 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.09 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Lugo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lugo scores more

35%

level

28%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

37%

Celta de Vigo II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff