Lugazi 1–1 Mbarara City: Result & Stats

Lugazi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mbarara City

12/12/2024

Premier League · Round 12Lugazi FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lugazi45%

×Draw29%

Mbarara City26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LugaziExpected goals in this matchMbarara City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.90

Lugazi

1.27

Mbarara City

0.90

Lugazi creates 41% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 86 away

0.93

creates per match

0.72

1.07

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Lugazi

0.93

Mbarara City

0.72

allows per match

Lugazi

1.07

Mbarara City

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lugazi+0.00on par

Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugazi ↓

Mbarara City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Lugazi or draw

74%

Lugazi or Mbarara City

71%

Draw or Mbarara City

55%

Winning margin

Lugazi wins by 2+

20%

Mbarara City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lugazi 1+ goals

72%

Lugazi 2+ goals

36%

Lugazi 3+ goals

14%

Mbarara City 1+ goals

59%

Mbarara City 2+ goals

23%

Mbarara City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lugazi (draw refunded)

63%

Mbarara City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugazi at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugazi attack 0.93 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + Lugazi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lugazi scores more

45%

level

29%

Mbarara City scores more

26%

Lugazi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lugazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff