Lugano 0–1 Leandro N. Alem: Result & Stats

Lugano

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leandro N. Alem

2/5/2024

Primera C · Apertura - 1Estadio José María Moraños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Lugano38%

×Draw29%

Leandro N. Alem33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuganoExpected goals in this matchLeandro N. Alem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.05

Lugano

1.14

Leandro N. Alem

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 138 away

1.00

creates per match

0.82

1.28

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Lugano

1.00

Leandro N. Alem

0.82

allows per match

Lugano

1.28

Leandro N. Alem

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lugano+0.00on par

Leandro N. Alem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugano ↓

Leandro N. Alem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Lugano or draw

67%

Lugano or Leandro N. Alem

71%

Draw or Leandro N. Alem

62%

Winning margin

Lugano wins by 2+

16%

Leandro N. Alem wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lugano 1+ goals

68%

Lugano 2+ goals

32%

Lugano 3+ goals

11%

Leandro N. Alem 1+ goals

65%

Leandro N. Alem 2+ goals

28%

Leandro N. Alem 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lugano (draw refunded)

53%

Leandro N. Alem (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugano at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Leandro N. Alem away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugano attack 1.00 + Leandro N. Alem defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Leandro N. Alem attack 0.82 + Lugano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lugano scores more

38%

level

29%

Leandro N. Alem scores more

33%

Lugano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff