Lugano 1–2 Deportivo Español: Result & Stats

Lugano

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Español

7/28/2024

Primera C · Clausura - 4Estadio José María Moraños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Lugano32%

×Draw30%

Deportivo Español38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuganoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Español

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.11

Lugano

0.98

Deportivo Español

1.11

Deportivo Español creates 13% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 122 away

1.00

creates per match

0.94

1.28

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Lugano

1.00

Deportivo Español

0.94

allows per match

Lugano

1.28

Deportivo Español

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lugano+0.00on par

Deportivo Español+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugano ↓

Deportivo Español →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lugano or draw

62%

Lugano or Deportivo Español

70%

Draw or Deportivo Español

68%

Winning margin

Lugano wins by 2+

12%

Deportivo Español wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lugano 1+ goals

62%

Lugano 2+ goals

26%

Lugano 3+ goals

8%

Deportivo Español 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Español 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Español 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lugano (draw refunded)

45%

Deportivo Español (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugano at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Deportivo Español away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.96 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugano attack 1.00 + Deportivo Español defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Deportivo Español attack 0.94 + Lugano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lugano scores more

32%

level

30%

Deportivo Español scores more

38%

Deportivo Español at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff