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Lugano vs Atletico Atlas — Primera C 2026

Lugano
Lugano
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Atlas
Atletico Atlas
3/3/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 5Estadio José María Moraños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Lugano36%
×Draw28%
Atletico Atlas36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugano
1.18
Atletico Atlas
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 104 away

creates per match

Lugano
1.00
Atletico Atlas
1.07

allows per match

Lugano
1.28
Atletico Atlas
1.35

finishing

Lugano+0.00on par
Atletico Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugano ↓

Atletico Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lugano or draw
64%
Lugano or Atletico Atlas
72%
Draw or Atletico Atlas
64%

Winning margin

Lugano wins by 2+
15%
Atletico Atlas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lugano 1+ goals
69%
Lugano 2+ goals
33%
Lugano 3+ goals
12%
Atletico Atlas 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Atlas 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Atlas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lugano (draw refunded)
50%
Atletico Atlas (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugano at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Atletico Atlas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugano attack 1.00 + Atletico Atlas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Atletico Atlas attack 1.07 + Lugano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Lugano scores more
36%
level
28%
Atletico Atlas scores more
36%

Lugano at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lugano vs Atletico Atlas

Atletico Atlas beat Lugano 2-1 in Primera C on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José María Moraños in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.